ENSO Blog

The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean is nice and warm, but the atmosphere just doesn’t seem interested. Will these two crazy kids get in sync and qualify as El Niño conditions? Forecasters think there’s a 90% chance that will happen soon and continue through the winter. Will-they-or-won’t-they Following our “Is it El Niño conditions?” decision tree, once we have a monthly average surface temperature anomaly in the Niño3.4 region above 0.5°C (currently near 1.0°C), and it’s forecast to stay that way for the next several months (it is; more on that later), we need signs of an atmospheric response before we can change our relationship status to “El Niño Advisory.” While warmer…   Read article

It’s been a busy fall with a potential El Niño in the forecast, but I was lucky enough to get the opportunity to participate in a recent conference on ENSO in Guayaquil, Ecuador. So, I brought along my trusty blogging laptop and want to share with you the latest on all things ENSO. This meeting included around 130 scientists from around the world who are all studying different aspects of ENSO… imagine a professional Comic-Con for ENSO nerds and you’ll be roughly in the ballpark. But, no, I did not wear a Chris Farley El Niño-style wrestling cape.   One of the best aspects of these conferences is the chance to finally …   Read article

The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is nearly 1°C warmer than the long-term average! We haven’t seen the atmospheric response that characterizes El Niño conditions quite yet, though.  Forecasters estimate about an 80% chance that El Niño will form soon, and continue into the spring. Where do I begin Let’s run the numbers! All four of the ENSO monitoring regions in the tropical Pacific were warmer than average in October. The Niño3.4 region was 0.8°C warmer than average using the ERSSTv5 dataset with the long-term trend removed, comfortably above the El Niño threshold of 0.5°C above average. To qualify as El Niño conditions, though, we have to see evidence that …   Read article

The air is starting to feel crisp, the leaves are changing, and the aroma of pumpkin spice lattes are filling your favorite coffee shops.  This can only mean one thing – it’s time for my annual post on NOAA’s expectations for the upcoming winter!  And once again, one of the key players is found in the tropical Pacific.  In contrast with the last two years, when we were looking at potential La Niña development, this year we’re waiting to see if El Niño will arrive in time to impact winter.  Without further ado, let’s take a look at NOAA’s 2018-19 Winter Temperature and Precipitation Outlook and see how ENSO has affected this forecast. As usual: Outlooks are probabilisti…   Read article

ENSO-neutral conditions still reign as of the beginning of the month, but we’re starting to see some clearer signs of the development of El Niño. Forecasters estimate that El Niño conditions will develop in the next few months, and there’s a 70-75% chance El Niño will be present through the winter.  Most computer models are currently predicting a weak El Niño event. Goblins and ghouls Over the past several weeks, surface temperature anomalies (difference from the long-term average) have gradually increased across much of the tropical Pacific. All four of the Niño-monitoring-region temperatures are now above average. The temperature in the Niño3.4 region (our primary me…   Read article