Unveiling the innovative advancements in hurricane modeling

Reliable models enable meteorologists to better forecast severe storms. Credit: NOAA

With an active hurricane season on the horizon, the need for reliable hurricane forecasting is at the forefront of our minds. Unusually high sea surface temperatures, weakened vertical wind shear, and an enhanced West African monsoon are expected to contribute to the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. To predict these developing storms, meteorologists employ models that rely on current observations and mathematical calculations to predict a storm’s behavior and track. These models are complex and use inputs from a variety of sources including historic, numeric, oceanic, and atmospheric data to generate their predictions.

AOML’s Hurricane Modeling Group has been systematically advancing its hurricane forecasting methods to prepare for this active season. By integrating innovative technology and refining its models, the group’s scientists aim to provide more accurate predictions of storm paths and intensities through innovative advancements in hurricane modeling. The Hurricane Modeling Group specializes in developing and evaluating these experimental and operational hurricane forecast models for transitions from research to operations. Improvements to these hurricane models provide better forecast guidance on tropical cyclone structure, intensity, and track to the National Hurricane Center.