Study explores strategies to improve US West Coast precipitation forecasts

Along the US West Coast, precipitation has a significant impact, but it can be challenging to predict. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov

Research has shown that an accurate representation of tropical weather can have a positive effect on Weeks 3-4 lead time extratropical forecasts. Retrospective forecasts, more commonly known as hindcasts, are performed with the tropics forced to closely match observational estimates. This allows for improved US West Coast precipitation forecasts in comparison to those without forcing. However, the origin of these improvements is not yet fully understood. In an attempt to do so, researchers from various institutions in Colorado (CSU, CU Boulder, NOAA/PSL) used a machine-learning method that subsets hindcasts by their initial conditions.

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