Poleward intensification of midlatitude extreme winds under warmer climate

A cyclone churns near the Black Sea in May 2021. Credit: NOAA

Given the significant risks posed by near-surface extreme wind speeds associated with midlatitude cyclones to lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure, it is imperative to understand their physical changes, including magnitudes and patterns, under human-induced global climate change. This study used GFDL’s high-resolution (50 km grid-spacing) atmospheric climate model, AM4, to investigate the global impact of midlatitude cyclones on extreme wind speed events, in both hemispheres, under a warmer climate. The authors conducted simulations covering the period 1949–2019 for both the present-day climate and an idealised future global warming climate scenario with a sea surface temperature (SST) increase of 2 K.

Their findings reveal that extreme near-surface wind speeds increase by up to 3% towards the poles while decreasing by a similar amount in the lower midlatitudes. When considering only extreme wind speed events attributed to midlatitude cyclones, the authors found a migration by the same amount towards higher latitudes, both in percentage per degree of SST warming and in absolute value.