New research estimates the future emissions of potent greenhouse gases

Thirty-first meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol (MOP 31) in 2019, the year the Kigali Amendment on HFCs went into force. Credit: UN Ozone Secretariat, IISD/ENB|Natalia Mroz

New research published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics projects future emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a class of potent greenhouse gasses, based on recent trends and compliance with current policies. The ability to observe trends of these compounds in the atmosphere is made possible by the long-term record of observations produced by the Halocarbons and other Atmospheric Trace Species (HATS) Division within NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory.

As substitutes for ozone-depleting substances, the emissions of HFCs have increased substantially over the past two decades as a response to controls on ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. Due to HFCs’ growing climate impact, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol has scheduled a phase-down of their future production and consumption.

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