Improving extreme rainfall predictions: the limits of high-resolution climate models

Precise rainfall predictions depend on multiple model factors. Credit: Pixabay

The Climate Program Office supported a new study published in Earth’s Future that advances efforts to improve projections of how extreme rainfall will increase as global temperatures rise. Extreme rainfall events have significant environmental and societal impacts such as floods or water shortages. The general circulation models scientists use to predict extreme rainfall trends typically have low spatial resolution, representing large areas with just one data point and often missing critical details about precipitation patterns. In the new study, researchers explored whether higher-resolution models could more accurately simulate large storms across the western United States. They found that higher resolution models did not consistently improve accuracy, highlighting the need for a balanced approach that considers both resolution and model intricacies.