Forecasting extreme temperatures months in advance

The estimated toll from extreme heat in the United States exceeds 700 deaths per year. Credit: NOAA

Heat waves and cold spells aren’t always as dramatic as other weather events, such as hurricanes and tornadoes, but they can be just as dangerous. Exposure to extreme heat can cause heat exhaustion and heat stroke, and can lead to flare-ups of chronic conditions, including asthma and cardiovascular disease. The CDC estimates that more than 700 people die from extreme heat every year in the U.S., making heat more deadly than any other weather disaster.

Extreme cold, meanwhile, can lead to some of the most dangerous and disruptive winter conditions. It can cause power lines to freeze, roadways to become slick, and can lead to hypothermia and death, particularly in vulnerable populations. In February 2021, for instance, a stretch of record-breaking cold weather in Texas led to burst pipes, icy roads, and power outages, and ultimately claimed the lives of more than 200 people.