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The Warm Water Volume anomaly during February-April compared against Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) during the following November-January. The La Niña years are colored in blue, the El Niño years in red, and ENSO-Neutral years in black. Large negative values of Warm Water Volume anomalies almost always lead to a La Niña event. However, large positive Warm Water Volume anomalies do not lead to El El Niño events. For SST data, OISST is used. Warm Water Volume comes from the PMEL analysis (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/upper-ocean-heat-content-and-enso). Figure provided by Aaron Levine and modified by Climate.gov.