Figure 3. ENSO prediction plume from September 2014 (see official version of this graphic), for SST anomaly out to Jun-Jul-Aug 2015. The orange lines show predictions of individual dynamical models, and blue lines those of statistical models; the thicker lines show the averages of the predictions from those two model types. The black lines and dots on the left side show recent observations. A weak El Niño (SST of at least 0.5˚, but less than 1˚C anomaly) continues to be predicted for late fall and winter 2014-15 by many of the dynamical and statistical models. The NCEP CFSv2 and the LDEO dynamical models, highlighted in brighter orange, suggest continuation and intensification of El Niño in spring 2015, presaging a possible 2-year event, as occurred in 1986-87-88 (but the LDEO model holds back on a full-fledged El Niño for the first year).