File name: enso-blog-nmme-ensemble-mean-oni-roni-dec-2024-feb-2025--corrected.png
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(left to right) The precipitation forecast for this upcoming winter (Dec-Feb 2024-25) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the geographic pattern of precipitation we'd expect for this upcoming winter based on past NMME Niño-3.4 index forecasts from 1991-2024, and the geographic pattern of precipitation we'd expect for this upcoming winter based on past NMME relative Niño-3.4 index forecasts. The NMME precipitation forecast for this upcoming winter matches the pattern based on the relative Niño-3.4 index forecast more closely than that of the traditional Niño-3.4 index forecast. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on analysis by Nat Johnson.