File name: ENSOblog-1979-CTL-pr-only-DJF-col4.png
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Predicted North America precipitation anomalies for December-February 2023-24 from the SMYLE forecast system (see footnotes for details). The top panel shows the forecast with all factors included (SST trends, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, El Niño), the middle panel shows the part of the forecast related to El Niño-only (no SST trend and GHG held at 1979 levels), and the bottom panel shows the portion of the forecast attributable to the influence of the SST trend + emissions. Green shading is above-average precipitation and brown shading indicates below-average precipitation. Anomalies relative to the 1979-2019 average. Figure credit: Adam Phillips, NCAR, with modifications by climate.gov.