(left) Based on countries' stated climate and energy policies to date, global emissions will fall only from about 36 billion metric tons per year to about 30 (red line). But if all countries follow through on their announced pledges (yellow), emissions will drop to around 12 billion metric tons, which is much closer to the goal of net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 (green)—needed to keep global average warming to no more than 1.5 ˚C above pre-industrial temperature. (right) Median (middle of the model range) warming by 2100 if we reach net zero by 2050 is projected to be around 1.4 ˚C (2.5 ˚F) (green dot). If all countries meet their pledges, median warming is projected to be 1.7 ˚C (3 ˚F). Actual policies to date are projected to lead to 2.4 ˚C (4.3 ˚F) (red dot). NOAA Climate.gov image, adapted from Figure 4.1 in World Energy Outlook 2023 by the International Energy Administration. Used under a Creative Commons license.