ENSOblog_NMME_plume_graph_20211108.png

Climate model forecasts for the Niño3.4 temperature anomalies in late 2021 and 2022 . Average dynamical model data (black line) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): darker gray envelope shows the range of 68% of all model forecasts; lighter gray shows the range of 95% of all model forecasts. Most of the plume—that is, most of the model runs—stay beneath the La Niña threshold this winter. NOAA Climate.gov image from University of Miami data.